Are estimations necessary or a waste of time?
Estimation in Agile is a divisive topic. Some teams swear by it, while others argue it’s a waste of time. The #noestimates movement is gaining traction, but before ditching estimations entirely, it’s worth considering the trade-offs.
Ron Jeffries acknowledges that estimation can work, but that doesn’t mean he recommends it. He writes: "I do not recommend story-level estimation of any kind, nor do I plan to change that view in the future...That being said, if you have to estimate, it is possible to do it well."
Jeffries sees estimation as a practice that can work but is easy to misuse. Many teams struggle when leadership treats estimates as a measure of productivity rather than a planning tool, leading to unnecessary pressure and unrealistic expectations.
So, should we abandon estimation? Not necessarily.
If your team finds it useful for planning capacity and aligning on complexity, it can still be valuable - especially as a way to surface hidden issues before work begins. If your team chooses to move away from estimation, you'll then need clear alternative ways to set sprint goals, define MVPs, and manage scope. Retrospectives will be key to refining these practices.
Here's a take from our co-founder, Dave Elkan:
Ultimately, the best approach is the one that helps your team deliver effectively. We've put together some useful reads to help you dig deeper.
Dive in.
Essential Reads on Estimations
The problem with agile estimation
~5 min read
Why estimations often fail and what to do instead.
How to use story points for agile estimation
~10 min read
A breakdown of story points, their original purpose, and how teams can apply them effectively.
How to play Planning Poker and involve the whole team in estimates
~7 min read
One of the most popular estimation techniques, explained step by step.
The Agile Grapevine
Industry Pulse & Community Buzz
💬 Ron Jeffries: "Estimation is Evil"
A Reddit thread unpacking Ron Jeffries' strong stance against estimation in one of his older posts, and the community's reaction.
📝 An alternative view on estimations
A different perspective on why estimation can be useful, arguing for lightweight estimation approaches that balance pragmatism with agility.
What’s your take?
Are estimations helpful, or is #noestimates the way forward? Hit reply and let us know, and we'll feature your insights in our upcoming edition.
Until next time!
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Are estimations necessary or a waste of time?
Estimation in Agile is a divisive topic. Some teams swear by it, while others argue it’s a waste of time. The #noestimates movement is gaining traction, but before ditching estimations entirely, it’s worth considering the trade-offs.